News Archives - Pat Carroll PCCO - Chartered Accountants & Tax Advisors

New figures from the Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage shows that the number of new commencement notices for August rose by 30.6% compared to the same time last year.

The Department said commencement notices for 2,770 new homes were received by Building Control Authorities in August, up from 2.121 units in August of last year.

It noted that a strong increase in commencements this year has continued and 21,316 homes have been started in the first eight months of this year.

This marked a 14% increase on the same time last year and is a record level since the data series began in 2015.

Article Source: Housing commencements up 30.6% in August – RTE

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The Minister for Finance has said the Government faces a challenge in the upcoming budget in getting the balance right between providing an appropriate amount of support needed for society and the economy without pushing inflation higher.

But addressing the Dublin Chamber annual dinner, Michael McGrath said he is confident it will get it right.

Mr McGrath said the budget would be framed against the backdrop of considerable international uncertainty, with persistent but falling inflation, monetary policy weighing on the global economy and the ongoing Ukraine war.

But he said there are solid reasons for optimism, with the Irish economy resilient in the face of shocks and a strong labour market.

Mr McGrath said it is in everybody’s interest to get inflation down as quickly as possible.

“The Government is acutely aware of the impact of monetary policy on households and on businesses and despite the inflationary pressure it is encouraging to see continued economic growth in Ireland and continued consumer spending over the second quarter,” he said.

But he also recognised that there are challenges ahead including capacity constraints in the economy.

“The central challenge that Minister Donohoe and I face, and the Government, is to get the balance right on the 10th of October, providing an appropriate amount of support which is certainly needed for our society and our economy without pushing inflation again in the wrong direction,” he said.

“And I am confident that we will get that balance right.”

The minister said the budget would be an opportunity for the Government to once again underline that having good quality public services, infrastructure and social supports is only possible when you have a strong and healthy economy.

He said the budget represents a once in a generation opportunity to secure the future, because of the significant surpluses in the public finances.

He added that there are options open to the Government that were simply unimaginable a few years ago.

The minister said the question was not what we should do with the money, but to start with an understanding of the ingredients that got us here.

These include the pursuit of pro-enterprise policies by successive Governments, a model of international trade, investment in education and skills, tax certainty, sound management of the public finances, a pipeline of talent, a commitment to the membership of the EU, a stable political environment and a spirit of partnership between public and private sectors, he stated.

He said the rate of growth in corporation tax in recent years has been extraordinary, but will not continue.

“Much of what we collect is potentially windfall in nature and cannot be committed to permanent spending or taxation commitments,” he said.

He said everyone is aware of the potential risks of using temporary windfalls to fund permanent commitments.

As a result the Government has increased investment in capital projects, he stated.

But the bulk of the windfall will be set aside, he added, to build up fiscal buffers and to be sure we can face future fiscal shocks from a position of strength.

He said they Government has already put €6bn into a National Reserve Fund over the last year, and work is already well underway on developing a new longer term savings fund.

Stephen O’Leary, Dublin Chamber President

In his speech to the dinner, Dublin Chamber President Stephen O’Leary said Dublin faces formidable challenges, but despite this he has never been more optimistic and excited for the future.

But Mr O’Leary, who is Managing Director of Olytico, said the Government needs to act and enhance its plans and ambitions for the region, given the population projections for it.

He said because the labour market is tight, better housing and economic infrastructure is needed.

“The labour force is diverse, yet many people, be they older or working in the home, face severe financial disincentives for their families if they take up employment,” said Mr O’Leary.

“For this reason, we have called on the Minister to remove and lessen these barriers in Budget 2024, with appropriate income tax measures and better universal supports for childcare.”

He said sustained progress and delivery of housing is required for many years ahead.

Mr O’Leary added that there are 50,000 inactive sites with planning permissions ready to go and creating high density living should not have to mean urban sprawl.

He also pointed to the need for improvements on public transport, calling for an accleration of Metro, rail, tram and Bus Connects projects.

Mr O’Leary also referred to the need for improved water supply and highlighted that legislation allowing water flow from the Shannon to the East, which was passed in December, has still not been made live by Statutory Instrument.

While on energy, the Dublin Chamber President said it is critical that the Powering Up Dublin project is completed on time for the 2029 target outlined by Eirgrid.

Regarding the debate around a Directly Elected Mayor for Dublin he said with the right powers and budget, they have the potential to be a great advocate and champion for Dublin.

“Government are considering how best to progress the debate as we speak,” he said.

“We believe further analysis of the functions that may be devolved to a Dublin Mayor is critical.”

“If there is to be a vote amongst Dubliners, it needs to be much better informed, and certainly not rushed.”

Mr O’Leary also called for the 20% Capital Gains Tax rate to be applied to indigenous, unquoted firms here.

Article Source: Govt must balance support and inflation in budget – McGrath – Will Goodbody – RTE

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Consumer confidence dropped to a six month low in September, amid a rebound in oil prices, a further rise in interest rates and a gloomier economic outlook.

The Credit Union Consumer Sentiment Index declined from 62.2 in August to 58.8 in September, marking the second monthly drop in a row.

Modest improvements in confidence were recorded between April and July.

Austin Hughes, economist and author of the report said he is not surprised to see this downward trend, with many Irish households facing into seasonal spending pressures – such as back-to-school costs, heating bills and Christmas expenses.

Four of the five key elements of the Credit Union Consumer Sentiment Index posted weaker readings in September than the previous month.

The outlook for the jobs market was the exception – it saw a marginal bounce after declines in previous months.

The data shows that Irish consumers were more negative about the general outlook for the Irish economy.

Mr Hughes said this is likely reflecting some nervousness about the current momentum of the multinational sector prompted by weak export data for the second quarter and a surprisingly large fall in corporation tax receipts in August.

“In tandem with poorer activity data for the Euro area and the UK through the survey period, this may have triggered a further downgrade in Irish consumer thinking about the prospects for economic growth in the next twelve months,” he added.

When it comes to household finances, consumers are increasingly nervous about what might lie ahead.

The share of consumers who expect their personal finances to improve in the year ahead almost halved to just one in 20 of the consumers surveyed.

“We think this probably reflects a material impact on many households financial circumstances of the recent rebound in oil prices and the further increase in interest rates,” Mr Hughes pointed out.

The survey also hints at a spending slowdown, which would be bad news for retailers if this continued in the run up to Christmas.

Priorities for Budget 2024

As part of the survey, consumers were asked what they felt should be the three main priorities for the Budget package, which will be delivered on 10 October.

50% of Irish people said improving the health system should be the top priority.

People also want to see measures to offset cost of living pressures, and specific measures to deal with high energy costs – both cited by 40% of consumers.

39% of those surveyed said they believe housing should be a key priority.

Meanwhile, 28% of consumers said a reduction in the tax burden was their top priority, while 20% said increases in welfare rates.

Economist Austin Hughes said it may be the case that these areas are not highlighted as a key priority by most because such measures normally feature in the Budget.

Just 15% of those surveyed said climate change should be a top priority, while support for mortgage holders was cited by 14%.

Need for budget supports

“There are a lot of reasons for consumers to be nervous about the outlook,” Austin Hughes told Morning Ireland, pointing to back to school costs, mortgage pricing and fuel costs amid a recent spike in the price of oil.

“Add to this global concerns about an economic slowdown. They’ve been hearing about problems in the tech sector in Ireland, the drop in corporation tax in August. There are a lot of reasons for consumers to be nervous at the moment,” he said.

Mr Hughes said consumers were expecting a significant element of support in the budget.

“That message is an important counterpoint to the talk from what we might call the economic establishment about the government having to be too careful.

“The government does have to be careful but it has to be careful not to do too little as well as not doing too much,” he explained.

He said there was an argument for substantial cost of living supports.

“It’s not a case of a giveaway budget, it’s not a case of throwing money, but there are supports needed to get households through the winter months,” he concluded.

Article Source: Consumer confidence drops to lowest level in six months – Gill Stedman – RTE

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The Minister for Finance has written to Government colleagues asking that public bodies under their remit maintain their existing payment methods in relation to accepting cash pending the completion of the National Payments Strategy.

Michael McGrath also said he expects that all public bodies that currently accept or facilitate the acceptance of cash will continue to do so in the future.

The National Payments Strategy will set out a roadmap for the future evolution of the country’s payments system and will take account of developments in digital payments and cash usage.

Amongst other issues, the NPS will look at the acceptance of notes and coins and consider if legislation should be introduced to require certain sectors or sub-sectors to accept or facilitate the acceptance of cash.

It will also consider whether it should be policy to require the public service to accept or facilitate the acceptance of cash.

The NPS will consult with the public in the fourth quarter of this year and a finalised strategy is due to be published in 2024.

This engagement process will consider whether it should be Government policy that public bodies should accept or facilitate the acceptance of cash for the payment of goods, services, taxes, levies, fees or charges.

“The strategy will set out a roadmap for the future evolution of the entire payments system, taking account of developments in digital payments, cash usage and how future changes should be made to the legislative criteria relating to Access to Cash,” the Minister for Finance said.

“It is for this reason I have written to all my Government colleagues asking them to maintain existing methods of cash payment for public bodies under their remit, pending the outcome of the National Payments Strategy,” Michael McGrath said.

“It is my expectation now that all public bodies that currently accept or facilitate the acceptance of cash should continue to do so,” he added.

While the Finance Department is undertaking its research, the Minister has asked that public bodies continue to ensure cash acceptance for services provided.

Article Source: McGrath wants public bodies to keep taking cash payments – RTE

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The Governor of the Central Bank has said his view is that March is probably too early a time to expect interest rates in the eurozone to start falling again.

Gabriel Makhlouf also said he would like to see a much faster pass through of European Central Bank interest rate changes to the real economy.

Mr Makhlouf told TDs and Senators at the Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure, Reform and Taoiseach that people should certainly not be doing financial planning on the basis that March would mark the start of a drop in rates.

“The honest answer is its too early to tell,” he remarked.

The Governor said he thinks we are getting close to the “top of the ladder” of interest rate increases and “we are there or there abouts.”

But he added that the ECB did say that it was going to hold rates there for a while when it reaches the top.

“I think people who are saying that in March we are going to reduce them are just speculating and my personal view…is that I wouldn’t speculate,” he said.

Sinn Féin’s finance spokesman, Pearse Doherty, said there are people who are wondering what they should do with their tracker mortgage rate.

Mr Makhlouf said he was not saying that at the next ECB Governing Council meeting it is going to hold rates steady.

“We’re near the top,” he said. “I don’t give financial advice…so people should not take what I say as something to plan for their trackers or whatever.”

He added that he thinks that when the next set of projections is produced by the ECB in December that is likely to be a moment when there will be a better sense as to what the situation will be next year.

Asked by Fianna Fáil’s Jim O’Callaghan what power the Central Bank has to force banks to pass through interest rate changes to deposit customers, Mr Makhlouf said it doesn’t have any powers around setting of rates.

The Governor said these are commercial decisions for banks.

He said while the banks have been slow in passing on rate increases, it is not the case that they have done nothing.

“From a monetary policy perspective, I would want much faster pass through of the decisions we make through to the real economy, on both sides of the ledger I should say,” he said.

He said how the monetary policy decisions are being passed through to the economy is something that he and the Central Bank wants to pay extremely close attention to.

“So this is not an issue that is going to disappear from our work programme,” he stated.

Pearse Doherty also questioned why the Central Bank didn’t seem to have a plan, like the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK did, to work with banks to ensure rate changes were passed on.

Deputy Governors Vasileios Madouros said the bank is extremely focused on monetary policy transmission.

“It is true that on the deposit side the Irish banking system has been slower, both relative to what we are seeing… in other parts of the euro area and also what we would have expected relative to our own history,” he said.

Mr Doherty said consumers are seeing mortgage rates that are higher than in the rest of Europe, deposit rates that are lower and the banks are making bonanza profits.

“People feel screwed by the banks,” he said.

Asked by the Aontú leader, Peadar Toibin, about whether, given the profits being made by the banks, that the bank levy should be increased, Mr Makhlouf said his advice to anyone thinking about a tax policy change is to consider what are you trying to achieve, where do you want the tax to fall and the indirect consequences of any decision you make.

Regarding the question of whether the Government should introduce some form of mortgage interest relief, the Governor said it would depend on how it was designed, how large it was and whether it was done through the tax or the welfare system.

He added that the ECB Governing Council had emphasised in recent years that supports from Government should be targeted, tailored and temporary and he said he agrees with that.

In his opening statement to the committee, Governor Makhlouf added his voice to warnings about the Government’s spending plans in the upcoming Budget.

He said the Summer Economic Statement “signalled a budgetary package that is significantly more expansionary than was outlined previously.”

“Such revisions can amplify demand in an economy already operating at capacity and shift the stance of fiscal policy in a pro-cyclical direction,” he added.

“It is important that fiscal policy doesn’t add to our own domestic inflation problem” and that “would damage the competitiveness of the Irish economy and potentially undermine its ability to deliver sustainable growth in living standards.”

Yesterday, the Central Bank’s Quarterly Bulletin outlined the same arguments.

The Governor welcomed the Minister for Finance’s decision to establish a savings fund to put aside some windfall corporate tax receipts.

On the pass-through of recent increases in interest rates by the European Central Bank, the Governor said consumers should be prepared to see increases in both lending and deposit rates over the coming months.

On mortgage arrears, the Governor said the latest figures showed that some people in early arrears are moving into arrears of between 90 days and one year.

He described the numbers as “very small at present” but said the Bank remained vigilant as arrears can be a ‘lagging indicator’ which may take more time to become apparent.

Article Source: March ‘probably too early’ to expect interest rates to fall – Makhlouf – Will Goodbody – RTE

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It is unlikely that households will see energy prices return to the previous low levels seen in 2020 and 2021 over the coming months, a new report from the energy regulator has found.

But the research from the Commission for the Regulation of Utilities (CRU) does predict that gas and electricity customers should see some benefit from falling commodity prices during the final three months of this year and the first three months of 2024.

The study had been requested by the Minister for the Environment, Climate and Communications Eamon Ryan.

It also found no evidence at this stage of market failure around competition or customer choice in retail energy markets.

The review also identified no evidence of supplier windfall profits in the retail market sector, with four suppliers exiting the market over the past 18 months and three more who have 80% of customers either returning profits to customers or running at a loss.

The CRU concluded that retail prices are continuing to reflect underlying cost drivers, such as wholesale gas and electricity prices.

However, there has been a lag period in how these pricing changes were passed on to customers as a result of supplier hedging strategies, it said.

This hedging led to a reduced impact on consumers when wholesale prices rose to high levels and remained volatile last year, the report found.

But this slow smooth increase is set to be mirrored in a similarly slow and smooth decrease, as wholesale prices drop back, it said.

“This market monitoring has shown the huge challenges that high prices have caused for customers, particularly in the terms of higher levels of debt in electricity and gas,” said Commissioner Aoife MacEvilly.

“At the same time, the data has shown that the market is functioning and that hedging by suppliers has reduced the worst impact of the unprecedented volatility in global gas prices we have seen in the last 18 months”.

“The CRU now expects that while prices may not reduce to their previous levels, customers should start to see some benefit of the falling prices,” she added.

The research also found that while investment here in new energy networks and generation capacity in order to meet climate goals and increasing demand is adding to customers bills, it is in the best interests of consumers.

The report recommends a continuation of customer protection measures into this winter as well as more targeted measures to support those in debt.

It also suggests a wider promotion of existing protections, as well as to drive greater uptake of Time of Use tariffs.

The study also recommends that while Irish customers should fund investment needed to support the Irish market, when it comes to new infrastructure for exporting energy, then customer funding should be proportionate to any benefits they may receive.

The CRU has also commissioned a review of Irish energy costs from the Economic and Social Research Institute in order to better understand what drives prices here compared to elsewhere.

Article Source: Unlikely energy prices will return to 2020 levels over coming months – CRU – Will Goodbody – RTE

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The Government has extended the First Home Scheme to self-builders who are building their first home.

The scheme, which was launched just over a year ago, works by providing homebuyers with part of the purchase price in return for a minority equity stake in the home.

It is already open to people buying newly-built houses and apartments in private developments, and to renters whose landlord is seeking to sell the property they are renting.

Today’s news will mean that self-build customers will be able to benefit from up to 30% of the total build cost of their home, to add to their self-build mortgage and deposit.

The scheme is available to qualifying homebuyers and self-build customers who are taking out mortgages from AIB, including its EBS and Haven Mortgages businesses, Bank of Ireland or Permanent TSB.

So far, almost 500 homes in 20 countries have been bought using the scheme, with almost 2,000 buyers approved for the scheme.

Houses with prices of up to €475,000 and apartments with prices of up to €500,000 are currently eligible for the scheme, depending on their location.

Around 80% of approvals have been for buyers in Dublin, Cork, Kildare, Meath and Wicklow, with the remaining 20% spread across 19 counties throughout Ireland.

The Government expects the change announced today to help people in regional locations looking to build their first home.

“This is a particularly important development for people who live in more rural locations or come from a farming background and who have a site, but not the full level of finance they need to build their new home,” said Darragh O’Brien, Minister for Housing, Local Government and Heritage.

“We designed this scheme to be flexible and to evolve so that it can help as many people as possible.

“We previously extended it to help renters looking to buy their home from their landlord and now it’s the turn of self-builders,” he added.

Figures published yesterday by the Central Statistics Office showed that residential property prices rose by 1.5% in the 12 months to July.

This marked the slowest annual rate of growth in almost three years and compared to a growth rate of 13.1% the same time last year.

Article Source: First Home Scheme extended to self-builders building first home – Gill Stedman – RTE

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Euro zone consumer inflation in August was slightly lower than initially estimated, the European Union’s statistics office Eurostat said today.

But it still remained more than twice the European Central Bank’s target of 2%.

Eurostat said inflation in the 20 countries sharing the euro was 0.5% month-on-month in August and 5.2% year-on-year, lower than the flash estimate of 5.3% year-on-year reported on August 31.

Eurostat said core inflation, which excludes volatile prices of energy and unprocessed food, was 0.3% month-on-month in August and 6.2% year-on-year, in line with initial estimates.

An even narrower measure of inflation, which also excludes alcohol and tobacco and is watched by many economists, was 0.3% on the month and 5.3% year-on-year, also in line with the August 31 estimates.

Eurostat said more expensive services had the biggest impact on the year-on-year reading in August, adding 2.41 percentage points to the final number.

Food, alcohol and tobacco added another 1.98 percentage points and industrial goods 1.19 points. A fall in the prices of energy subtracted 0.34 points.

To bring inflation down to its target, the ECB raised its deposit rate to a record high 4% last week and hinted at a pause, raising expectations in the market that its next move will be a cut, possibly as soon as late spring 2024.

Slovak ECB policymaker Peter Kazimir said yesterday that the rate hike last week may have been its last for now, but policymakers will need until March to be sure, with further rate hikes not yet ruled out.

Article Source: Euro zone August inflation revised slightly lower – RTE

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Summer spending recovered slightly last month despite the continuing bad weather, a new survey shows today.

The AIB August Spend Trend report reveals that overall spending rose by 1% in August compared to the previous month.

The bank its report suggests that due to the bad weather many people decided to stay home with spending on homewares up 18% – the biggest increase across all sectors analysed.

The report also shows that the hospitality sector had a mixed month in August after a decline in July.

Spend in hotels and restaurants was up 2% and 1% respectively in August, but it slipped by 1% in pubs, during what would traditionally be a busy month.

Breaking down the figures, AIB said that spending in pubs by people from Monaghan saw the biggest drop of 7% but Westmeath bucked the trend, with pub spending by people from the county up 17%.

People from Mayo had the biggest increase in spend in hotels, with the amounts rising by 13%, while people from Louth had the biggest decrease of 8%.

Spending in restaurants increased most among people from Roscommon – up 4% – and decreased most among people from Limerick – down 2%.

But overall spend in restaurants is up 10% on an annual basis, AIB noted.

Today’s figure also show that online spending decreased by 1% last month, while there were increases for spend via digital wallet (up 3%), chip and pin (up 2%) and contactless (up 1%).

Despite the slight decrease in August, online spending increased 15% year on year, AIB added.

John Brennan, Head of SME Banking at AIB, said August was another wet month so it was no surprise that people were choosing to stay indoors and spend on their homes.

“While spending increased slightly for hotels and restaurants in the month, it was down slightly for pubs, which is disappointing as summer is traditionally a busy time for the sector,” Mr Brennan said.

“It’s also interesting to note the differences in spend across different parts of the country, for example people from Westmeath had an increase in pub spending of 17%, despite the sector being down overall. These insights are vital for businesses, to help them plan accordingly and grow their business,” Mr Brennan added.

AIB said its monthly data was compiled from 70 million debit and credit card transactions in store and online during August.

Article Source: Spending on homewares up 18% in August, but pub spend dips 1% – AIB – RTE

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New figures from the Central Statistics Office show that residential property prices rose by 1.5% in the 12 months to July.

This marked the slowest annual rate of growth in almost three years and compared to a growth rate of 13.1% the same time last year.

Prices in Dublin decreased by 1.4% and prices outside Dublin rose by 3.8% in the 12 months to July, the CSO noted.

National prices were up 0.3% on a monthly basis – the second monthly increase in a row after five successive falls from January to May.

House prices in Dublin fell by 1.8% while apartment prices were up by 0.1% in the 12 months to July, the CSO said.

It noted that the highest house price growth in Dublin was in Fingal at 1.4%, while Dublin City saw a decline of 4.5%.

Outside of Dublin, house prices were up by 3.9% and apartment prices rose by 2% in July.

The region outside of Dublin with the biggest increase in house prices was the South-East – Carlow, Kilkenny, Waterford, Wexford – at 4.8%.

At the other end of the scale, the Border region – Cavan, Donegal, Leitrim, Monaghan, Sligo – saw a 2.2% rise.

Today’s CSO figures show that the median price of a home in the 12 months to July was €320,000.

The lowest median price for a house was €160,000 in Longford, while the highest median price of €630,000 was seen in Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown.

Meanwhile, the most expensive Eircode area was A94 ‘Blackrock’ with a median price of €735,000, while F35 ‘Ballyhaunis’ had the least expensive price of €127,500.

The CSO said that a total of 4,174 home purchases at market prices were filed with Revenue in July, a decrease of 6.1% compared with the 4,443 purchases in July of last year.

The total value of transactions filed in July was €1.6 billion.

In the year to July, a total of 50,342 home purchases were filed with Revenue.

Of these, 17,222 (34.2%) were purchased by first time buyer owner-occupiers, while former owner-occupiers purchased 27,030 (53.7%). The remaining balance of 6,090 (12.1%) were acquired by non-occupiers.

Property prices nationally have increased by 128.2% from their trough in early 2013, the CSO said.

Dublin residential property prices have risen by 125.5% from their February 2012 low, while prices in the Rest of Ireland are 138.3% higher than their trough in May 2013.

Commenting on today’s CSO figures, Rachel McGovern, Director of Financial Services at Brokers Ireland, said the fact that prices are rising despite massive interest rate increases underscores the fact than home ownership has become the preserve of the better off.

“It is outside of today’s figures that the dramatic and worrying shifts in our demographics are evident,” she said, adding that recent Eurostat figures show that 68% of those aged between 25 and 29 were still living at home last year, compared with an EU average of 42%.

Ms McGovern said it looks like these figures are set to get worse rather than better – forcing young people to emigrate.

“The country’s apparent inability to build homes at affordable prices for a rapidly growing population is an indictment of public policy. In just six years our population has grown by over 387,000,” she stated.

She also said that piecemeal measures in next month’s Budget will not be sufficient.

“The extension of schemes like the Help-to-Buy and First Home shared equity scheme to second hand homes, while welcome, would not be at all sufficient. We need unprecedented measures to build more homes, more quickly and at more affordable prices,” she urged.

Brokers Ireland represents 1,225 broker firms around the country.

Meanwhile, Pat Davitt, CEO of the Institute of Professional Auctioneers & Valuers (IPAV) said rising interest rates are only having minimal effect so far on house prices.

“That is largely because those on average wages, who would have been the typical buyer traditionally, have already been locked out of the market,” he said.

“With the exception of the Help-to-Buy and the first Home scheme such prospective buyers have found themselves chasing an ever shifting target, from over-zealous mortgage rules initially and now high interest rates and diminishing lending competition,” he added.

Mr Davitt said it is important that next month’s Budget contains “meaningful and impactful’ measures.

“The Taoiseach acknowledged earlier this year that 250,000 new homes are needed. We need a whole suite of new measures to achieve that level of building along with tackling the major impediments, and indeed the massive tax take on new homes,” he said.

Article Source: Annual house price growth cools to 1.5% in July – CSO – RTE

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