News Archives - Pat Carroll PCCO - Chartered Accountants & Tax Advisors

Market volatility and uncertainty look set to remain a defining feature of the investment landscape into 2026, according to investment specialists, with geopolitical change reshaping both risks and potential returns.

The past year has been characterised by rising international tensions, trade disputes, tariffs and a growing trend towards economic isolation. These forces show little sign of easing and are increasingly influencing how governments and investors approach long-term planning.

According to Leonie MacCann of Irish Life Investment Managers, the global environment has entered a more fragmented phase, where policy priorities are shifting towards resilience and self-sufficiency. In this context, long-standing alliances can no longer be taken for granted, adding a new layer of complexity to investment decision-making.

Heightened uncertainty has driven renewed interest in traditional safe-haven assets. Gold prices have climbed steadily in recent months, pushing close to record levels as investors seek protection against geopolitical and economic shocks.

At the same time, these changing dynamics have revived sectors that previously attracted limited attention. European defence stocks have gained momentum, supported by increased military spending following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and renewed pressure on Europe to strengthen its own security capabilities. Germany’s recently announced multi-year defence investment plan is seen as part of a broader global shift rather than a temporary response.

Energy investment patterns are also evolving. Nuclear power has returned to the spotlight, partly due to the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence and the significant energy infrastructure required to support it. Both the United States and China are advancing new nuclear projects, while major technology companies are exploring partnerships to secure long-term, reliable power sources.

Despite these emerging themes, experts stress that uncertainty reinforces the importance of sound investment fundamentals. A diversified portfolio, combined with the flexibility to respond to changing conditions, is increasingly seen as essential in navigating volatile markets.

For investors, the challenge lies in balancing caution with opportunity. While geopolitical risks are unlikely to fade in the near term, structural changes in defence, energy and technology may offer meaningful long-term potential for those prepared to adapt.

Disclaimer: This article is based on publicly available information and is intended for general guidance only. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy at the time of publication, details may change and errors may occur. This content does not constitute financial, legal or professional advice. Readers should seek appropriate professional guidance before making decisions. Neither the publisher nor the authors accept liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material.

The European Central Bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting this week, marking a fourth consecutive pause as inflation remains broadly under control. While policy itself looks set to stay steady, disagreement is growing beneath the surface over where rates should head next.

After a year of rate reductions, the ECB has held its key deposit rate at 2% since July. Recent inflation readings have hovered close to the Bank’s 2% target, easing immediate pressure for further action. At the same time, the euro zone economy has proven more resilient than many had anticipated, even in the face of renewed global trade tensions.

Economic growth remains modest, though revised figures show the euro-area expanded by 0.3% in the third quarter. That resilience has prompted a more confident tone from some policymakers. Isabel Schnabel, a member of the ECB’s Governing Council, recently noted that the euro-area economy had withstood what she described as the most significant disruption to global trade since the Second World War.

Despite this improved outlook, few expect the ECB to shift policy this week. Uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on decision-making, driven in large part by unpredictable global trade policies and the risk of retaliation measures. ECB President Christine Lagarde has repeatedly stressed that inflation risks remain two-sided, with forces pulling price growth both up and down.

Factors such as a stronger euro, lower energy costs and easing wage pressures could restrain inflation further. However, policymakers also face the possibility that economic resilience, combined with increased public investment, particularly in Germany, may reignite price pressures over time.

The ECB will publish updated economic projections at this meeting, extending forecasts out to 2028 for the first time. These figures will be scrutinised closely by markets for signals on the Bank’s longer-term intentions. Analysts expect policymakers to acknowledge improved near-term conditions while remaining cautious about the medium-term outlook.

Comments from within the Governing Council highlight the growing divide. Schnabel, often viewed as more concerned about inflation risks, has indicated she is comfortable with market expectations that rate increases could return next year. Lagarde has also suggested that growth forecasts may be revised upwards.

Others are more guarded. Policymakers including Finland’s Olli Rehn and France’s François Villeroy de Galhau have warned that inflation risks remain finely balanced. Villeroy has emphasised that downside risks are at least as significant as upside ones, reinforcing the ECB’s commitment to keeping all policy options open.

For now, the ECB appears content to wait. The bigger question is whether holding rates steady reflects genuine confidence that inflation is under control, or whether policymakers are buying time in an environment where the margin for error remains uncomfortably thin.

Disclaimer: This article is based on publicly available information and is intended for general guidance only. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy at the time of publication, details may change and errors may occur. This content does not constitute financial, legal or professional advice. Readers should seek appropriate professional guidance before making decisions. Neither the publisher nor the authors accept liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material.

The European Commission is expected to signal a significant shift in its climate and transport policy, with plans to revise the EU’s effective ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2035. The move follows sustained lobbying from major member states, including Germany and Italy, alongside mounting pressure from European carmakers facing fierce competition from US and Chinese manufacturers.

While final details are still being negotiated, proposals under discussion include delaying the ban by up to five years or softening its impact through exemptions and alternative compliance routes. Any change to the 2023 legislation, which requires all new cars and vans sold in the EU from 2035 to be CO₂ emission-free, would represent one of the most notable retreats from the bloc’s green policy agenda in recent years.

Senior political figures have openly criticised the original policy. Manfred Weber, leader of the European Parliament’s largest political group, described the combustion engine ban as a serious industrial policy error, arguing that it placed European manufacturers at a competitive disadvantage during a period of rapid global change in the automotive sector.

The industry itself is divided. Established manufacturers such as Volkswagen and Stellantis have pushed for greater flexibility, citing slower-than-expected consumer demand for electric vehicles and concerns about affordability and charging infrastructure. In contrast, companies focused on electric mobility warn that weakening the targets risks undermining investment and conceding technological leadership to China, where EV production has scaled rapidly.

EU policymakers originally introduced the ban to accelerate the shift towards electric and hydrogen-powered vehicles, backed by penalties for manufacturers failing to meet emissions targets. Progress has been uneven. European carmakers continue to trail competitors such as Tesla, BYD and Geely in EV sales and cost efficiency, and demand has not matched earlier forecasts. Although tariffs on Chinese-built EVs have offered some relief, they have not resolved underlying structural challenges.

Automakers are now calling for a broader, multi-technology approach. This would allow continued sales of combustion engines alongside plug-in hybrids, range-extender vehicles and cars running on so-called CO₂-neutral fuels, including e-fuels and advanced biofuels. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has previously indicated openness to such options, reflecting a growing recognition that the transition may be more complex than initially assumed.

From a policy perspective, the debate raises an uncomfortable question. Is Europe adjusting its strategy in response to practical constraints, or diluting long-term climate ambitions to protect short-term industrial interests? Critics argue that the technology, infrastructure and consumer readiness for electric vehicles are already in place, and that regulatory uncertainty risks slowing progress further.

Alongside changes to the 2035 target, the Commission is expected to outline measures to accelerate EV adoption in corporate fleets, particularly company cars, which account for a majority of new vehicle sales in Europe. Industry groups favour incentives over mandatory quotas, pointing to countries such as Belgium where tax measures have driven uptake. There is also discussion of creating a new regulatory category for smaller electric vehicles, offering lower taxes and additional emissions credits.

Environmental groups remain firmly opposed to any rollback. They argue that biofuels are limited in supply, expensive, and unlikely to deliver genuine emissions reductions at scale. From their perspective, weakening the 2035 target sends a damaging signal at a time when global competitors are doubling down on electrification.

Whether this rethink proves a pragmatic recalibration or a strategic misstep will depend on how the final policy balances competitiveness, consumer realities and climate commitments. What is clear is that the direction of Europe’s transport policy is no longer as settled as it appeared only two years ago.

Disclaimer: This article is based on publicly available information and is intended for general guidance only. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy at the time of publication, details may change and errors may occur. This content does not constitute financial, legal or professional advice. Readers should seek appropriate professional guidance before making decisions. Neither the publisher nor the authors accept liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material.

The UK economy recorded an unexpected decline in the three months to October, according to new figures from the Office for National Statistics. The data shows that gross domestic product fell by 0.1% over the August to October period, defying expectations of flat growth and reinforcing market expectations of an imminent interest rate cut by the Bank of England.

October alone saw economic output decline by 0.1%, contrary to forecasts which had anticipated modest growth. While monthly GDP figures can be volatile and subject to revision, the latest release confirms that the UK economy has failed to achieve any meaningful growth since June. This points to a prolonged period of stagnation rather than a short-term slowdown.

The figures highlight the difficult economic environment facing the UK government, particularly in the run-up to the recent Budget announced in late November. Weak growth has limited the room for manoeuvre on fiscal policy and increased pressure to stimulate economic activity without adding to inflationary risks.

The contraction was driven by sharper-than-expected falls in both the services sector and construction. Services, which account for the majority of UK economic output, declined by 0.3% in October, largely due to a poor month for retailers. Construction activity also weakened, adding to the overall slowdown.

Manufacturing output failed to rebound as anticipated following disruptions earlier in the autumn, including the impact of a cyber attack on Jaguar Land Rover. This lack of recovery further dampened overall economic performance.

The data also raises questions over the Bank of England’s current growth projections, which assume expansion of approximately 0.3% in the final quarter of the year. Financial markets have responded by significantly increasing the probability of a rate cut at the Bank’s December meeting.

On an annual basis, UK economic output was 1.1% higher in October compared with the same month last year, falling short of economist expectations. While growth remains positive on a yearly measure, the slowdown in momentum suggests ongoing challenges for policymakers, businesses, and households as they look ahead to 2026.

Disclaimer: This article is based on publicly available information and is intended for general guidance only. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy at the time of publication, details may change and errors may occur. This content does not constitute financial, legal or professional advice. Readers should seek appropriate professional guidance before making decisions. Neither the publisher nor the authors accept liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material.

Ireland’s annual rate of consumer price inflation increased to 3.2% in November, according to the latest figures from the Central Statistics Office. This marks an acceleration from the 2.9% rate recorded in October and represents the highest annual inflation level since February 2024.

The data shows that price pressures remain widespread across several sectors of the economy. Education recorded the largest annual increase, with costs rising by 8.9% over the twelve months to November. This was largely driven by higher third-level education fees. Clothing and footwear prices also rose sharply on an annual basis, increasing by 4.4%, while food and non-alcoholic beverages were up 4.3%. Prices in restaurants and hotels increased by 3.6% over the same period.

Significant increases were also recorded in specific grocery items. Beef and veal prices rose by almost a quarter compared with last year, while butter prices increased by more than 10%. Chocolate and coffee also became noticeably more expensive, with annual increases of 11.5% and 12.4% respectively.

On a month-to-month basis, clothing and footwear showed the largest increase, with prices rising by 1.2% in November. Miscellaneous goods and services increased by 0.5%, reflecting higher prices for items such as jewellery, clocks and watches, as well as rising health insurance premiums.

Alongside the inflation figures, the CSO published updated national average prices for a range of everyday goods and services. Over the past year, the average price of a large white sliced pan increased by nine cents, while a large brown sliced pan rose by one cent. Spaghetti prices edged up slightly, while the average cost of a 2.5kg bag of potatoes fell by 22 cents.

Dairy products continued to see upward pressure, with the average price of two litres of full-fat milk rising by 11 cents over the year. Butter prices increased by 55 cents per pound, and Irish cheddar rose by 62 cents per kilogram.

In contrast, some alcohol prices showed mixed movements. The average take-home price of a 50cl can of lager fell slightly to €2.39, while cider increased to €2.71. In licensed premises, the average price of a pint of stout rose to €6.08, with a pint of lager increasing to €6.51 compared with November last year.

These figures highlight the ongoing impact of rising living costs for households and underline the importance of careful financial planning in a persistently inflationary environment.

Disclaimer: This article is based on publicly available information and is intended for general guidance only. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy at the time of publication, details may change and errors may occur. This content does not constitute financial, legal or professional advice. Readers should seek appropriate professional guidance before making decisions. Neither the publisher nor the authors accept liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material.

Ireland’s domestic economy is expected to record modest but steady growth over the next ten years, according to a new projection from the Economic and Social Research Institute. The research suggests annual growth of slightly over 2%, pointing to a period of stability rather than rapid expansion.

The study assesses how the Irish economy may perform under normal conditions, while also examining its exposure to potential external shocks. It notes that Ireland has shown resilience in recent years, having navigated the economic disruption caused by Brexit, the Covid-19 pandemic and sharp increases in energy prices. However, the report cautions that this resilience should not be taken for granted.

A key concern highlighted is Ireland’s exposure to global economic conditions. The ESRI points to heightened uncertainty arising from changes in US trade policy and a more challenging international economic environment. Ireland’s heavy reliance on multinational companies, both for employment and for corporation tax receipts, is identified as a central vulnerability within the current economic model.

Under its baseline assumptions, the domestic economy is projected to grow by an average of 2.3% per year up to 2030, easing slightly to 2.1% per year in the period to 2035. The ESRI stresses that this outlook is not a forecast, but a projection that excludes the impact of unforeseen shocks.

The report explores several alternative scenarios to illustrate potential risks. In the event of a global slowdown, a 5% reduction in export demand for Irish goods and services could lead to a 3.2% fall in national income and a significant decline in consumer spending by the end of the decade. A deterioration in competitiveness could have even more severe consequences, with notable reductions in incomes and household expenditure.

The analysis also considers the impact of reduced foreign direct investment. In such a scenario, employment levels could fall materially, with a corresponding rise in unemployment. On a more positive note, the study finds that stronger productivity growth could meaningfully improve economic outcomes, lifting national income above the baseline projection.

Commenting on the findings, ESRI Director Martina Lawless described the outlook as one of continued growth, though at a slower and more moderate pace. She also warned that longer-term pressures, including an ageing population and the financial demands of climate change, are likely to weigh on the economy beyond 2035.

The report concludes that sustained investment in education, infrastructure, and research and development will be essential to reduce risk exposure and support long-term economic resilience.

Disclaimer: This article is based on publicly available information and is intended for general guidance only. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy at the time of publication, details may change and errors may occur. This content does not constitute financial, legal or professional advice. Readers should seek appropriate professional guidance before making decisions. Neither the publisher nor the authors accept liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material.

New data from the Central Bank shows that the average interest rate on new mortgages in Ireland fell to 3.56 percent at the end of October. This represents a slight monthly decrease and the lowest level recorded since March 2023. Although rates have eased, Ireland still ranks among the higher-cost mortgage markets in the euro area, placing sixth compared with other member states.

Across the euro zone, the equivalent average stood at 3.33 percent. Latvia recorded the highest rate at 3.96 percent, followed by Estonia and Germany, while Malta had the lowest at 1.96 percent.

Fixed rate products continue to dominate the Irish market. In October, they accounted for 90 percent of new agreements, with an average rate of 3.49 percent. This reflects a modest monthly reduction and a more substantial decline compared with the same month last year. Variable rate mortgages told a different story, rising to an average of 4.17 percent, although these rates remain lower year on year.

The overall value of new mortgage lending fell to €1.1 billion in October, reflecting a slowdown in activity. Deposit rates offered little movement, with household overnight deposits remaining at 0.13 percent, unchanged since late 2024.

Industry commentary suggests that borrowers will welcome the easing of mortgage costs, especially after September’s uplift had raised concerns about a possible reversal in the downward trend. Donal Magee, Senior Underwriter at Nua Money, noted that borrowers should remain cautious. With the European Central Bank signalling limited scope for further rate cuts, and even suggesting the possibility of an increase, household budgeting will remain important.

He also pointed to forecasts indicating robust economic performance in 2025 but a potential slowdown in 2026. Should financial conditions tighten, borrowers who take on higher levels of debt could face increased pressure.

Disclaimer: This article is based on publicly available information and is intended for general guidance only. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy at the time of publication, details may change and errors may occur. This content does not constitute financial, legal or professional advice. Readers should seek appropriate professional guidance before making decisions. Neither the publisher nor the authors accept liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material.

New figures from the Central Statistics Office indicate a notable uplift in planning activity, with permissions granted in the third quarter rising by 29.4 percent compared with the same period last year. This marks the strongest quarter of approvals since late 2023 and will likely be interpreted as an encouraging sign for future housing supply.

Between July and September, the total number of proposed homes receiving approval increased from 8,611 to 11,142. The sharpest growth came from the apartment sector, where approvals rose by 51.2 percent to 5,016 units. House approvals also grew, climbing 15.7 percent to 6,126 units.

Dublin recorded a substantial increase in overall permissions, up 47.9 percent year on year. This surge was driven mainly by apartment developments, with approvals in the capital more than doubling from 1,293 units to 2,792. However, the number of houses granted planning in Dublin moved in the opposite direction, falling 57.5 percent to 350 units.

While the figures point to rising momentum in residential planning, the CSO cautions that quarterly data can fluctuate, especially when large-scale projects are processed within the same reporting period.

Disclaimer: This article is based on publicly available information and is intended for general guidance only. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy at the time of publication, details may change and errors may occur. This content does not constitute financial, legal or professional advice. Readers should seek appropriate professional guidance before making decisions. Neither the publisher nor the authors accept liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material.

Ireland marks a significant technological milestone this week, celebrating four decades since the country’s first mobile phone call. The call, made on 11 December 1985, saw the then Minister for Communications, Jim Mitchell, ring broadcaster Pat Kenny for a light conversation that happened to signal the beginning of a new era in Irish telecommunications.

Ireland had already taken its first steps into mobile technology a year earlier, when Telecom Éireann secured a licence from the Department of Communications in 1984. This paved the way for the launch of Eircell in 1985, the network on which the first call was made. At the time, Ireland was navigating a difficult economic climate, yet the decision to invest in a completely new communications market proved to be an ambitious and ultimately transformative move.

Reflecting on the anniversary, Minister for Culture, Communications and Sport Patrick O’Donovan highlighted the scale of the achievement. He noted that committing to such innovation during a recession underscored Telecom Éireann’s confidence in Ireland’s technological future and set the foundation for the thriving sector we see today.

The telecoms industry has since become a central driver of Ireland’s economic and social development. Telecommunications Industry Ireland, the representative body for the sector, reports that €5 billion has been invested in network infrastructure over the past eight years alone. The industry also spends €2.7 billion annually with Irish suppliers and now supports 24,000 direct jobs.

Beyond the economic contribution, the sector plays a pivotal role in enabling modern life. From business connectivity and digital services to national communications infrastructure, Ireland’s telecoms industry continues to shape how people live and work throughout the country.

Disclaimer: This article is based on publicly available information and is intended for general guidance only. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy at the time of publication, details may change and errors may occur. This content does not constitute financial, legal or professional advice. Readers should seek appropriate professional guidance before making decisions. Neither the publisher nor the authors accept liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material.

New figures from the latest AIB Purchasing Managers’ Index indicate that construction activity in Ireland declined again in November, marking the seventh consecutive month of contraction. The continued drop reflects persistent weakness in demand and a slowdown in new project inflows.

The headline Construction Total Activity Index fell to 46.7 in November, down from 48.1 in October, remaining below the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction. Survey responses highlighted reduced demand and a fall in new orders, leaving many firms without sufficient new work to replace recently completed projects.

All three segments monitored in the index recorded declines during the month. Commercial activity, which had seen a modest improvement in October, reverted to contraction. Residential building continued its downward trend for a seventh month, although the rate of decline was the slowest since June. Civil engineering remained the weakest area, with a sharper fall than the previous month.

New orders fell for the fourth month in a row as companies reported softer demand conditions along with delays in project commencement. According to AIB’s Senior Economist John Fahey, the November data points to a further loss of momentum in the sector during the middle of the fourth quarter. He noted that the index has been below the breakeven point for seven consecutive months and that the pullback in activity is broad-based across commercial, residential and civil engineering projects.

Despite the contraction, the report did include some positive indicators. Employment levels rose after two months of decline, suggesting firms are maintaining capacity in anticipation of future growth. Survey respondents also remained broadly optimistic about increasing activity over the coming year, although confidence eased slightly compared with October.

The survey found that firms continued to scale back their use of sub-contractors, while the availability of subcontracted labour also tightened.

Overall, the November readings reflect a sector facing ongoing challenges, with order books under pressure and activity contracting across all major segments, yet with some signs of resilience in employment and future expectations.

Disclaimer: This article is based on publicly available information and is intended for general guidance only. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy at the time of publication, details may change and errors may occur. This content does not constitute financial, legal or professional advice. Readers should seek appropriate professional guidance before making decisions. Neither the publisher nor the authors accept liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material.